Zack Wheeler's extension shows why his last deal is The Greatest Starting Pitcher Contract Ever (2024)

CLEARWATER, Fla. — It’s a perfect day to talk about Zack Wheeler’s contract … just not thatone.

On Monday, the Phillies officially announced Wheeler’snextcontract — the one that starts in 2025: three years, $126 million. It’s the third-largest deal for any starting pitcher in history, by average annual value. And it comes close to paying Wheeler as many dollars for three years as Roy Halladay once made in his whole career, over 15-plus years. But …

This isn’t a column aboutthatZack Wheeler contract. Here’s why …

“Because you know whatthiscontract tells you?” mused one baseball official after learning the terms of Wheeler’s extension. “It tells you how good thelastcontract really was.”

Ding-ding-ding. Exactly. Here’s the most important thing you need to know about Wheeler’s last (not to mention current) contract — five years, $118 million, a deal that he, his agent (B.B. Abbott of Wasserman) and the Phillies agreed to a couple of days after the 2019 Winter Meetings:

It’s not merely in the argument for the Greatest Starting Pitcher Contract Ever ($100 million-and-up division). If you go by value per dollar spent, it wins that argument.

You read that right.The Greatest Starting Pitching Contract Ever belongs to Zack Wheeler.And I’m not just spitting out that opinion off the top of my head. I’ve been studying this all winter. I was in the process of writing this very column, in fact … and then Wheeler’s next contract was signed.

We’ll go through my reasoning shortly. We’ll also hear from Wheeler, his pitching coach (Caleb Cotham), his front office and a fellow named Gerrit Cole, the one other active starter who is in the middle of a deal that could flip this order before he’s through. But first, after way too many hours digging in on this, I think these are the four contracts that make our final four:

Max Scherzer

TEAM: Nationals
YEARS: 2015-21
TERMS: seven years, $210 million

Gerrit Cole

TEAM: Yankees
YEARS: 2020-28
TERMS: nine years, $324 million

Justin Verlander

TEAM: Tigers
YEARS: 2013-19
TERMS: Seven years, $180 million

Zack Wheeler

TEAM: Phillies
YEARS: 2020-24
TERMS: Five years, $118 million

Honorable mention: Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Zack Greinke

How’s that for exalted company? If we include those honorable mentions, that’s a group with 12 Cy Young Awards and seven World Series rings. And every one of those guys would have trouble walking to lunch without an autograph stampede breaking out — except for one …

Zack Wheeler.

He’s (by far) the most unassuming, soft-spoken, under-the-radar name on this page. But that, says his pitching coach, is because he’s too busy trying to be great.

When I asked Caleb Cotham earlier this spring about Wheeler’s dedication to his craft, he talked not about the big stuff but about the simple things: Wheeler’s commitment to mastering, or improving, one new pitch per year … his ability to absorb himself in every detail of every game, even ones he’s not pitching in … his focus on better connections with his strength coaches and trainers, to give himself the best chance to make every start.

“And that,” Cotham said, “is aspiring for greatness. It’s: ‘I want to be better. So I need to prep and be able to practice in between my starts.’ So it’s all these things combined. It’s been fun to watch his evolution just from being already a very, very good pitcher to, in my opinion, the best.”

Maybe Wheeler’s quiet pursuit of greatness has helped him mostly dodge the spotlight outside Philadelphia over these past four years. But is that even possible now that he’s signed thiscontract?

The Phillies are now paying him what Cy Youngs and future Hall of Famers — namely, Scherzer and Verlander — get paid. That didn’t happen because this team had an extra $42 million a year burning a hole in its checking account. It’s a reflection of where the Phillies think Wheeler belongs in the pantheon of true aces in the sport.

“Well, you’re right about what we’re paying him,” Dave Dombrowski, the club’s president of baseball operations, said Monday at the news conference announcing Wheeler’s extension. “And (he’s now in the same salary neighborhood as) a couple of guys out there that are really at the top of the level. But what it tells us is that we think Zack is as good as anybody in baseball right now.

“I think (Scherzer and Verlander are) a little bit different scenarios when you look, maybe, at the length of their careers. … But, for us right now,” Dombrowski said, “when we look over the last handful of years, we think Zack Wheeler’s as fine a pitcher as there is in the game of baseball.”

Here to stay ❤️ pic.twitter.com/7Qh8jMaP12

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) March 4, 2024

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Later in this column, we’ll circle back to the thinking that drove the Phillies to hand Wheeler a contract that will pay him more per year than both Cole ($36 million) and Jacob deGrom ($37 million), placing him just below Scherzer and Verlander ($43.3 million apiece). But first, it’s that moment you’ve been waiting for …

The Greatest Contract Ever Debate

Who doesn’t love a furious debate about the bestanythingever? So let’s have that debate. Let’s examine the contenders for Greatest Starting Pitcher Contract Ever (with fantastic commentary from Gerrit Cole) — and then see how Wheeler compares.

(Two things we should mention before we begin: First, remember that we’re only judging contracts of $100 million and up. Second, take into account that Scherzer, Cole and Wheeler all were part of the 60-game pandemic season in 2020. So I’ve taken the liberty of prorating their wins above replacement, for that season only, in calculating their average WAR per season. Got it? Cool. Now let’s go.)

The Scherzer deal (2015-21)

W-L: 99-47
ERA: 2.75
MISSED STARTS: 6 in 7 years
AVG bWAR: 6.3 (*1st)
AVG fWAR: 6.1 (*1st)
CY YOUNG AWARDS: 2
CY YOUNG VOTING: 2nd once, 3rd twice
WORLD SERIES WON: 1

(*over length of contract)

THE CASE FOR MAX:Scherzer is the leader in this clubhouse, if only because he has already finished this entire contract — and essentially outpitched everyone in the sport from start to finish. … But it wasn’t just Scherzer’s totals over those seven seasons that make that case. He also was certifiably awesome in nearly every season of the contract, piling up top-three Cy Young Award finishes in five of the seven years and top-five finishes in six of seven, missing out only in 2020. … Plus his team, the Nationals, won its only World Series in franchise history along the way. So there isn’t a box Scherzer didn’t check.

Cole on Scherzer: “These statistics are incredible. He’s just one of the great, generational pitchers. And his passion, and his motor, are like — it just doesn’t get any higher than that. He’s the ultimate high-energy competitor. So driven, so stubborn, won’t ever come out of a game. What a marvelous, marvelous player with a marvelous career. And such unique mechanics, too.”

The Verlander deal (2013-19)

W-L: 101-64
ERA: 3.25
MISSED STARTS: 12 in 7 years
AVG bWAR: 5.1 (*3rd)
AVG fWAR: 4.8 (*5th)
CY YOUNG AWARDS: 1
CY YOUNG VOTING: 2nd twice
WORLD SERIES WON: 1

(*over length of contract)

THE CASE FOR VERLANDER:Verlander is actually in a different category from the other names on this list. Not only was he not a free agent when he signed, as the other three were, but this one was also tricky because it was an extension on top of a previous extension. On the other hand, he’s Justin Verlander. So it was impossible to leave him out of this derby. … His overall numbers took a hit because of a 2014 season in which he came back too soon after core-muscle surgery, followed by a lingering triceps injury in 2015. But from 2016-19, Verlander was The Supreme Dominator in the game — with an averageof 7.0 WAR over those four seasons. … Also: He should have won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 — at least according to Mrs. Verlander (Kate Upton)!

Cole on Verlander: “Another ultimate competitor. Another Hall of Famer like Scherzer – a slam dunk. And definitely, for me, up there with the greatest pitchers of all time.”

The Cole deal (2020-present)

W-L: 51-23
ERA: 3.08
MISSED STARTS: 2 in 4 years
AVG bWAR: 5.9 (*2nd)
AVG fWAR: 4.4 (*5th)
CY YOUNG AWARDS: 1
CY YOUNG VOTING: 2nd once
WORLD SERIES WON: 0

(*over length of contract)

THE CASE FOR COLE:Did you know that among pitchers who were once drafted first in the country, Cole is already The Greatest No. 1 Pick in History, at least by WAR? So he’s always had That Look. … In his four seasons as a Yankee, he may not quite have matched his 326-whiff uber-ace final season in Houston. But it’s hard to quibble with two top-two Cy Young Award finishes in four seasons. … In fact, you know how many other Yankees starters have ever piled up a Cy Young Award and a Cy Young runner-up season in any four-year span? Yep. Zero! … One more thing: His two missed starts in these four seasons were because of Covid protocols. So he would otherwise have made it to the mound for every possible start in the life of his contract. Amazing.

COLE ON HOW HE COMPARES TO THESE GUYS: “I don’t think I ever really compare because I still feel like I just aspire to be like them. … And I’ll be honest. When you first walked over here, the first thing I thought was: Oh, boy. I’m not comfortable talking too much about this. It’s really humbling. And it makes me feel really special. But I also try to live mostly in the moment of, I just have a lot more work to do. So I don’t often spend time in this realm. So I’m flattered. Really.”

So that’s the field. Now let’s take a long look at …

The Wheeler deal (2020-present)

W-L: 43-25
ERA: 3.06
MISSED STARTS: 6 in 4 years
AVG bWAR: 6.1 (*1st)
AVG fWAR: 5.6 (*1st)
CY YOUNG AWARDS: 0
CY YOUNG VOTING: 2nd once
WORLD SERIES WON: 0

(*over length of contract)

THE CASE FOR WHEELER:It isn’t too complicated. Just look at the data — because it tells you that since he signed that contract, Wheeler has been the best regular-season pitcher in baseball and the best postseason pitcher in baseball. That seems good. … As you can see from the chart, he leads every pitcher in the sport in both the Baseball Reference and FanGraphs version of WAR in his April-September life. … Then, when he’s gotten the ball in October, all he’s done is run up the best WHIP (0.73) and opponent average (.161) of any starter in historywho has made 10 postseason starts (or more). That’ll prop up anyone’s case.

COLE ON WHEELER: “I love Zack Wheeler. …I admire how he just keeps getting a little bit better, and keeps trying to strive to get a little bit better. And I feel like it’s remarkable, too, because he had so many setbacks early in his career. So he persevered through all that kind of stuff. He gives out similar vibes to a Charlie Morton in that regard, where it’s just like: Good for you for sticking with it.And you’re great. Greatmix. He’s always had a great four-seamer. Great curveball.Plus he does it in a big market, and he does a great job.”

So there you go. Those are four monster performances over the life of four monster contracts. And there’s no perfect way to separate them.

According to Baseball Reference, Scherzer, Cole and Wheeler have all averaged more than 6 WAR a season over the life of their deals, which separates them, just by a hair, from Verlander (who was “only” a 5-win player on average). But the more I’ve thought about this, the more I think it comes down to …

Scherzer versus Wheeler

Why Scherzer?Even the Phillies’ principal owner, John Middleton, said Monday — on the day he guaranteed Wheeler an additional $126 million — that Scherzer is the standard by which all of these contracts ($100 million and up division) should be measured.

THE ATHLETIC: “In terms of the value you got for Wheeler’s first contract, how would you stack up that one?”

JOHN MIDDLETON: “I don’t think there’s been a better pitching contract in baseball in a long, long time. Scherzer’s seven-year deal with Washington is probably the last obvious one, to me, that you could legitimately point to and say: There’s a guy who performed through the life of that contract. He won two Cy Youngs with Washington, as I recall, and one before he got there. … So it’s a spectacular contract. And he’s a spectacular pitcher.”

Why Wheeler?First off, why is it Wheeler versus Scherzer instead of Wheeler versus Cole? Two reasons: One, Cole and Wheeler started their contracts in the same season (2020). And Wheeler ranks ahead of Cole in WAR, ERA, FIP and postseason impact. But also, Cole’s deal has (at least) five years left — so he isn’t even halfway through it.

Based purely on performance, it’s hard to place anyone above Scherzer. But let’s think about this in a slightly different way: What if you measure these deals not just by raw numbers but also by value, per dollars spent, for that performance? If you do that, you get a different leaderboard:

DOLLARS PER WIN ABOVE REPLACEMENT

1. Wheeler — $3.9 million
2. Scherzer — $4.7 million
3. Verlander — $5.0 million
4. Cole — $6.1 million

It’s that value index that swings this debate over to Wheeler’s corner. I looked at more than 30 starting pitcher contracts worth $100 million or more. And if you compare production for the money, Wheeler blows all of them away. But finally, we need to consider two more elements here …

Living up to the responsibility of the deal

When you’ve just been handed the biggest starting pitcher contract in the history of your franchise, there’s more to honoring that contract than just finding your way to the mound every five days. There’s a whole ’nother level beyond that. By which I mean …

Understanding the responsibility that goes with being That Guy.

Scherzer, Verlander and Cole have always gotten that. But so does Zack Wheeler, a pitcher who took on one big contract and only got better — which earned him even bigger dollars and the responsibility that goes with this second nine-figure deal.

THE ATHLETIC: “There’s a responsibility that goes with a contract like this, or any big contract. I’m curious how you think your ability to perform and live up to that responsibility over the last contract prepares you for doing that with this contract?”

ZACK WHEELER: “There’s definitely pressure. Especially being in Philadelphia. It’s a tough place to play. I think coming from New York, also a tough place to play. So, you’re going to have your ups and downs. You’ll have your bad games, bad innings. You might get booed here and there, booed off the field, but it’s part of the game. You take that in and use that as motivation and just try to build off of that because you don’t want that to happen again.

“There is pressure to live up to the contract. But if you take care of what you need to, hopefully it will take care of itself on the field in the performance.”

So is there going to be a whole extra level to that responsibility this time around? I think there is. After all, the $40-million-a-year starters club now consists of just three names …

Scherzer, Verlander and Wheeler

Those of us who hang around ballparks for a living are just like you. We look at the stars. We imagine we’re owners and general managers trying to sign those stars. Then we try to guess the contract.

We were playing that game in Phillies camp Monday morning, trying to guess the numbers in Wheeler’s new deal. Not one of us got as high as $42 million per year. So the thought process that led the Phillies there is fascinating.

MIDDLETON: “We think he’s as good a pitcher as anyone in baseball. I think he’s probably the single pitcher I’d want on the mound in the seventh game of the World Series, or any kind of deciding playoff game. And you know what’s out there on the market. You weren’t going to get him for 35 (million dollars). You weren’t going to get him for 37.5 (million). It had to start with 40. The question is where is it over 40? And that’s what we came down to.”

But Scherzer and Verlander have won three Cy Young Awards apiece to Wheeler’s zero (though there was a compelling case that Wheeler should have won the National League award over Corbin Burnes in 2021).

Plus there’s a significant difference in age. By July, Scherzer and Verlander will be on the other side of 40. Wheeler, on the other hand, is only 33, with his 34th birthday coming up on May 30.

So why weren’t Cole ($36 million AAV) and deGrom ($37 million AAV) more comparable to Wheeler than Scherzer and Verlander? Abbott, Middleton and Dombrowski all said that came down to two factors:

Length of deal:Cole (nine years) and deGrom (five years) are in the midst of longer contracts, whereas Scherzer (three years) and Verlander (two years) are working on contracts of a similar length to Wheeler.

“I preferred working on a shorter-term deal rather than a longer-term deal,” Dombrowski said, “which fit for both us and him.”

The recencyfactor:Middleton dismissed deGrom as a comp to Wheeler because of deGrom’s injury history. So why wasn’t Cole the best comp? Because he signed a much longer deal and agreed to it in December 2019. So it was “because he signed a while ago,” Middleton said, “and Scherzer and Verlander are more recent.”

But what does Wheeler’s new contract reallytell us about the way he’s viewed in baseball? It couldn’t be more obvious. He’s getting paid $42 million a year for one reason:

Greatness.

The bottom line: He’s earned those massive bucks in this contract because of the consistent acehood he provided the Phillies in that last contract — a.k.a., The Greatest Starting Pitching Contract Ever.

So has Zack Wheeler had the career that Scherzer and Verlander have had? That’s not even part of this debate. The question is what Wheeler is worth right now. And clearly, the Phillies just answered it.

“Obviously, you have the Verlander and Scherzer contracts as a comp, and they’ve had many better years early in their career,” Middleton said. “But if you go back to when they signed those contracts, Zack is as good today as they were then.”

(Top photo of Zack Wheeler: Melissa Tamez / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)