March Madness Thursday's best first-round upsets picks and predictions (2024)

If you’re old enough to remember, you know where you were when Bryce Drew’s shot led 13th-seeded Valparaiso over 4-seed Ole Miss. Every few years, we have big-time moments like that where Cinderella finds perfectly fitting slippers.

As recently as last season, 16-seed Farleigh Dickinson busted many brackets with a win over top-seeded Purdue. It was just the 2nd time in NCAA Tournament history that a 16-seed won a game.

These upset picks are the crucial ingredient to winning parlays, and they make great profit points as standalone bets as well.

After looking at the BetMGM Sportsbook’sNCAA Tournament odds and lines, here are the best 1st-round upsets for Thursday among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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NCAA Tournament best Thursday first-round upsets

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 3:04 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

OREGON (+100) vs. South Carolina – 4 p.m.

The Ducks won the final installment of the Pac-12 Tournament with a 75-68 W over Colorado. They’ve won 4 straight and have a tournament-tested coach with Dana Altman. In his 14 years in Eugene, he has guided the Ducks to the tournament 8 times. He took them to the Final Four in 2017, when they took North Carolina to the brink in a 77-76 loss. The major cog the Ducks have going for them is C N’Faly Dante. He’s averaging 17.7 points, 9.2 boards, 1.9 steals and 1.9 blocks over his last 10 games. The Gameco*cks are undersized, and their top rebounder is averaging a whopping 4.8 boards per game. Dante is going to eat them up.

Potential payout: Bet $100 to profit $100 (payout = $200).

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SAMFORD (+260) vs. Kansas – 10:55 p.m.

This line opened at +280 and has come down, in large part, because KU is without its leading scorer. G Kevin McCullar (knee) will miss the entire tournament, and it’s not going to be easy to replace his 18.3 PPG. Samford had a pretty good chance before that news because they’re the 5th-ranked offense in the country at 86 PPG. They play at a blistering pace, 11th in the nation at 72.8, which could wear down KU’s 7-foot-2 center Hunter Dickinson. The Bulldogs were blown out by Purdue 98-45 early in the season in their only game against a ranked team. They went 29-4 the rest of the way.

Potential payout: Bet $100 to profit $260 (payout = $360).

NC STATE (+180) vs. Texas Tech – 10:55 p.m.

The 11-seeded Wolfpack take on the 6-seeded Red Raiders in Pittsburgh. The Pack stunned the UNC Tar Heels 84-76 to take the ACC crown. They won 5 games in 5 consecutive days, and they have the size underneath to strike an advantage on anyone. F D.J. Burns Jr., 6-foot-9 and 275 pounds, averaged 16 PPG over the last 7 games, and he was in double figures in 6 of them. F Mohamed Diarra averaged 14 PPG, 14 RPG and 2.3 BPG over his last 4 games. They’re hot, battle-tested, and they could make a run.

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MoreNCAA College Basketball Picks and Predictions

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