2024 Kentucky Oaks 1st to last: Predicting the order of finish (2024)

2024 Kentucky Oaks 1st to last: Predicting the order of finish (1)

Photo:Justin Manning / Eclipse Sportswire

This year's Grade 1Kentucky Oaks is one of the most wide-open editions in recent memory. The morning line has five fillies between 7-2 and 5-1, and any of them could wind up the favorite when the gates open. With such a competitive affair, exotic payouts should be substantial no matter who wins.

Below are the 14 fillies to consider in your Kentucky Oaks wagers ranked from first to last.

1.Thorpedo Anna (5-1).This filly has shown immense talent in three lifetime wins and has the perfect tracking style to sit a great trip from post 5. Her only loss was a second in the Golden Rod Stakes, and that came 15 days after her romping allowance win when she likely bounced a bit. She already owns a win over the track and has been working great leading up to the race. Kenny McPeek's filly appears to still have the upside to take another step forward and capture the Kentucky Oaks.

2.Leslie's Rose (4-1).Much like Thorpedo Anna, she was ultra impressive in her final prep after a disappointing effort in the race prior.It is possible that she did not care much for Gulfstream Park as she has been brilliant in two races outside of Gulfstream and just average in her two races in Florida. The $1.1 million purchase put it all together when dominating the Ashland (G1), which appears to be the strongest of any 3-year-old filly race leading up to the Oaks. A repeat of that effort would make her tough, even from post 14.

3.Just F Y I (9-2).The 2-year-old champ suffered her first career defeat in the Ashland but ran very well off the layoff when second to Leslie's Rose after missing some training leading up to the race. Trainer Bill Mott likely did not have her fully cranked for the Ashland, but she should be set for her best on Friday.

4.Where's My Ring (15-1). She may not have broken her maiden until the Gazelle (G3), but she had been facing tough fillies in California before shipping to New York and looked good while winning in the identical time as the Wood Memorial (G2) on the same card. All three of her races with blinkers have been solid, and she is bred to love an off track. With rain possible, she is a live long shot to consider.

5.Tarifa (7-2). This might prove to be too low of a ranking for the morning-line favorite as she has done little wrong in five career starts. She has improved since removing blinkers and is in the very capable hands of Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. I believe the 3-year-old filly crop that she has been beating in Louisiana has been below average this year, and it is worth noting that her only career loss came in her sole start on this track.

6.Ways and Means (5-1). This filly always has carried a high reputation and has been bet heavily in all three career starts.She could have been short when losing in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, but it also may be an indication that she is better in sprints. She may prove to be among the most talented runners in the crop, but I am not convinced this is the right spot for her to show her ability.

7.Power Squeeze (12-1). She has won four starts in a row and just knocked off Ways and Means in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She has blossomed as a router and could sneak into the exotics at a price. Her biggest obstacle could prove to be the jump up in class.

8.Regulatory Risk (20-1). Chad Brown's filly was no match for Where's My Ring last time out and although that was her best effort yet, she will need to take another large step forward to contend in this race.

9.Lemon Muffin (30-1). Her win in the Honeybee Stakes was sharp, but that effort seems to be more of the exception than the norm. D. Wayne Lukas is always capable of getting a long shot ready for a big race, but it would be a surprise to see her suddenly make up 10 lengths on Thorpedo Anna.

10.Fiona's Magic (30-1). She owns a win over Leslie's Rose, but Leslie's Rose did not bring her best that day and this filly stopped badly in her next start when trying two turns for the first time. She will be part of the early pace but is unlikely to stick around late.

11.Tapit Jenallie (30-1). This filly has managed to pick up a few checks along the way but has yet to be a real threat while losing ground in the stretch in all of her Oaks preps. That is not a good recipe for pulling off the upset Friday.

12.Gin Gin (30-1). These are big odds for a Brad Cox runner, but they are justified after two distant third-place finishes in New York. Her best chance may be on a chaotic wet track as she does own a win in the mud.

13.Into Champagne (30-1). She might be the fastest of this bunch early, but it unlikely that she will kick on at this distance. Look for her to cut back in trip in her starts after the Oaks.

14.Everland (30-1). The former maiden claimer is not fast enough based on her synthetic form and would have to improve by leaps and bounds in her first dirt start to contend.

2024 Kentucky Oaks 1st to last: Predicting the order of finish (2024)
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